We arrived at the limit? The ways of the record is finished? Or there is still room for improvement? Legitimate questions as seen after the recent world championships in Rome in swimming and athletics in Berlin, appointments that have checked the temperature of the various disciplines, photographing the health and future prospects in terms of human progress. And if the “super costume” have contributed greatly to demolish 43 world records, numbers that do not fall entirely normal, although it is difficult to understand the line between skill and technological help for athletes (difficulties which led the International Federation to take a step back and to banish from January 2010, the super costumes to return to the classic fabric), what of the phenomenon Usain Bolt and his 9′58”about 100 meters and 19′19 “on the 200? Two outstanding performances that have reopened the fascinating discussion on the limits of human performance.
the three schools of thought – is there a time below which it is not humanly possible to get off? It seems so, but on when, what and how the three schools of thought that are dedicated to address this fascinating question, have rather different ideas. Almost all studies of human physiology to understand the limits of the future in sport, ie where we will end with the record, are based strictly on mathematical models and statistics. The British researchers are convinced that for athletes in various disciplines, the maximum has already been practically achieved. A group of French scientists, however, after examining the records obtained from 1896, the year of the first modern Olympics, to date, that will be improved by 2027 only 0.05 percent. How to say nothing. The New Zealand physiologist R.H. Morton says, finally, that in the 100 meters, the top is set at 9.15, but at this time trial, however, you will arrive in 2250, that is between two and a half.
studying English – The limits of speed and endurance for the human race would be close to being met. The two researchers argue British, Alan Nevill, University of Wolverhampton to Walsall, and Gregory Whyte of the English Institute of Sport Bisham in an article published in the journal “Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise.” Scientists have examined the record marked by the world today in 1910 in races like the 800 meters and the marathon men, leading to what in statistical terms is called a curve in S. This type of curve shows a gradual increase of the records in the early years, when athletes were largely amateurs, a very rapid increase in mid-twentieth century when there is the professionalism and finally describes the arrival from the eighties onwards, a zone of stability in which the improvements are minimal. It seems that many primates, and the average of the long distance they are approaching their limit. According to their estimates the records of men reach the peak between 2020 and 2060, reaching levels higher speed compared to only 1 hours and 3%. The races that provide the margin of improvement higher, are the meters of the 5,000 men, whose time may be even lowered by 25 seconds from 12′37 “35 Bekele of Ethiopia, and that of men’s 100 meters. The authors coming close to the limit of the marathon men, starting with the best performance of 2 hours, 3 minutes 59 seconds (which belongs to Ethiopia Haile Gebrselassie), could fall at most, even for a minute and 17 seconds. We hasten, however, in every sense, athletes, men and women, competing for supremacy in the 800 meters in this case, are “only” a few seconds and tenths to gnaw. No hope for the middle instead run the 1,500 meters, whereas that in this discipline, there was only one new world record from 1980 to the present. The women, at least in this discipline, may even have already reached the extreme limit. That if someone decides to cheat: the results of research, in fact, are based on the assumption that athletes do not make use of genetic engineering, or make use of doping substances. But the theory does not convince everyone, especially athletes. Chris Broadbent, of Scottish Athletics, remember that the records are outdated and rarely when this happens it is always with a low margin. What is important for Broadbent is the training and discipline. Liz McColgan, the gold medal in 10 thousand meters at the Seoul Olympics of 1988, while in some ways giving reason to Professor Neville , believes that the records can still be improved, thanks to better training techniques and nutrition.
the French study – It ’s the conclusion to which comes a study in France by the biomedical and epidemiological Sports and published by the Sunday Times. Between 51 years, athletes from around the world will no longer be able to adjust the primates on the tracks and platforms. The analysis took into account 3260 world records made since 1896, the year of the first edition of the modern Olympics. Over a century ago, according to the study, the athletes taking advantage of 75% of their psychological capacity, and now came to 99%. By 2060 there will be no more “psychological borders” to be killed. But according to Jean-Francois Toussaint, team coordinator who has cut 111 years of sport, half of the subjects begin to stop since 2027. The wall will begin to rise nell’atletica light. Then, it will be up to lifting weights. So, will the turn of the sport in which even has the technology and the effectiveness of materials and tools. The study is not influenced by the variable doping, a factor that the French researchers was already present in ancient and that it must be considered relevant only in the 70s, when the athlete was beginning to reach its limits. For Toussaint, therefore, its presence does not completely change the overall picture and in this respect also accepts the 10 “49 Florence Griffith won the women’s 100 meters at the Games in Seoul in 1988. Decidedly different opinion of John Hoberman, a professor at the University of Texas: “The doping has helped athletes to use their psychological skills, and time goes by Florence Griffith questioned as a reference point. Not only that, but three of the five men capable of running under 9 “80 (Ben Johnson, Tim Montgomery and Justin Gatlin) tested positive for anabolic steroids. Not to mention the endless lists of all-time shot put.”
the study of New Zealand – The New Zealand physiologist, RH Morton says that in the 100 meters, the top is set at 9.15. Which, translated into speed, mean 40 kilometers per hour (39.344 to be exact). In this time trial, however, you will arrive in 2254, that is between two and a half. Before that date, but certainly after 2187, the perfect sprinter can win a maximum time of 9 “24. This man-jet, according to Morton, is two meters high (and now with 196 cm of Usain Bolt, the Jamaican Primat with 9:58 in the world, we come closer to this figure) and weigh 100 pounds. The age will be different from that of today sprinter who, on average, 25-30 years: in the future, 35-38 years and its skin is not black, but the result of the mixed race.
how to beat the record – For Peter Enrico Di Prampero, physiologist at the Department of Biomedical Sciences and Technologies of the Faculty of Medicine, University of Udine, are two fundamental reasons behind the progress of the sport. One, the globalization that allows for natural selection on a broader basis: in numbers, you can find the superatleta. Two methods of training more and more sophisticated and more suitable for human machine. Not to mention the external aid, please doping: the variable that makes any crazy prediction and statistical model, as the scholar speaks of limits and not scientific research. That not only genes and muscles, but also technology-related materials. One need only think of the new costumes that turn swimmers in torpedoes. Sergio Lupo, the sports doctor who has seen samples of the caliber of Björn Borg, Alberto Tomba and Maradona even if the statistical model is better than other previously developed, shows how it can offer only predictions, which as plausible, does not give absolute certainty. So much so that the conclusions reached by scholars are often contradictory. In addition, states that although the physiological characteristics of the human body are pushed to the extreme, there are other factors that can improve a performance: the methods of training, the type of runway surface, equipment, clothing. Not forgetting that some people have combined recently to sport and physical constitutions of which you do not yet know the full potential.
